The "sloppy, dangerous thinking" is the aversion these types of articles create within the general population to artificial intelligence. We don't need to fear AI, we need to understand and control it...
The "sloppy, dangerous thinking" is the aversion these types of articles create within the general population to artificial intelligence. We don't need to fear AI, we need to understand and control it...
What happens when most people have no salable skills due to the combination of robotics and AI? We're essentially going to have to live w/ income supports for the 90+% of Americans, and worse for the countries to which we've exported eg electronic device construction and clothing manufacture. I think there's a nonzero chance society essentially tears itself apart during the transition period. It is now the Republican party position that not all people deserve healthcare, housing, or enough food to eat. What happens when their hated segment of the populace gets much bigger in a job market that doesn't need cashiers, janitors, gardeners, cooks, taxi drivers, car washers, many farmers, or most menial labor?
Also, I would note that creating AI that requires less control makes it more useful. So in some sense the development of AI itself fights against controls.
But, what you're describing is the process of people being replaced by technology. Generally speaking, this will probably not be a problem for a free-market economy, although it will certainly result in some unemployment.
The key point is that replacing humans with machines does not only cause unemployment, but it also reduces cost of production, which stimulates capital investment and/or reduces prices in the industry in question. In the general economy, this reduced cost and increased production should offset the lost "purchasing power" from the now-unemployed parties. The stimulus reduces costs in other industries which promotes job growth.
The end result is likely to be that the same number of people are employed, but they are employed in a more efficient manner of production. The cost of labor will decrease relative to the amount of production, however because this is tied to a decrease in cost of production, the real value of the labor (in terms of things you can buy) should not decrease.
Of course there will be some disenfranchised individuals, especially those who have particular skills that are replaced my mechanization. However, this is more likely to affect skilled laborers (like cooks) than those who are not paid for their skills (like janitors or cashiers).
In the end, I guess my point is that a free-market economy naturally balances these factors due to the relationship between supply and demand. However, it's possible that we will reach a point, especially if we truly do hit a Singularity, where we will have to reconsider the use of a scarcity-based economy at all, as production becomes completely divorced from any human action. Hopefully though, at that point the cost of goods will have naturally fallen to such a degree that the transition can be performed peacefully.
People like Jeremy Howard believe that we are in for a similar wave of disruption. I have no doubt that there is a new, stable equilibrium which we _could_ eventually reach, but if the change is so sudden and the shock strong enough, perhaps there could be permanent or semi-permanent negative consequences before the new equilibrium is reached.
You could also consider comparing the approaching wave of robotic mechanization with the first wave. Again, there was a lot of violence and it took many decades for increased standards of living to reach the working class.
Your entire post is economically illiterate.
I asked him why there isn't a robot to open and close the doors. He said that there is, but in this country its much cheaper to pay people to do it. (I think he said the cost of maintaining the door opening robots to be about $1m a year approximately.
So until we have a world where every country has the same salaries as USA/Western Europe/Japan, I think you will always be able to find work.
Even if that work should really be done by a robot
Even if not, we don't need that many people to open doors. So perhaps an office building will have 2 human janitors and 10 robot janitors; it doesn't really change the problem caused by souped up roombas putting the vast majority of janitors out of work.
The job that I consider most threatened by advances in AI is actually the job of programmer.
It's like people freaking out that "superhuman strength machines" would spell the end of the world since why, if an electric motor is so powerful, would you need manual labor for anything?
SMI is another tool and the interplay between "machine intelligence" and "human intelligence" will be complicated and nuanced.
For example, biotech is filled with ferociously complicated problems that may take machine intelligence to solve. Once solved, these could lead to genetically engineered humans that are intrinsically smarter or better able to deal with the machines.
This doesn't even touch on the fact that the distinction between machine intelligence and human intelligence might become quite blurred.
Already I've noticed that people are "stupider" without their phones, they've offloaded a lot of cognitive functions on a device that's pretty much omni-present. A person with a smart phone today could be considered of superhuman intelligence since they're able to draw on significant resources a person without one doesn't have. A seven year old kid can tell you the capital of Tajikistan and the last ten presidents of Micronesia without breaking a sweat.
Fortunately nuclear weapons didn't destroy the world, but AI almost certainly will. No amount of smarthphone apps or genetic engineering is going to make humans anywhere near the level of superintelligent machines.
Just as nuclear weapons radically transformed the world, dramatically reducing the amount of armed conflict, AGI may have a similar transformative effect.
I see no signs that this is going to lead to destruction. Is it really the sign of an intelligent machine to go all Skynet on us?
Even that doomsday scenario had machine intelligences fighting for us. I think your pessimism is confusing the relative probability of the outcomes.
But making that happen is very very hard, and its far more likely they will be paperclip maximizers. There's no reason they would care about us any more than we care about ants.
Give the AI's a chance to contribute, especially if the solutions to problems we can't crack are because of human cognitive limits. This situation reminds me of how the Apollo landings couldn't be done without computers. There's just no way a person can do those calculations on paper. AI as a contributor of economic, technological, or social policy seems to be a similar step.
This isn't true. Please don't state falsehoods. Stuart Russell, Michael Jordan, Shane Legg. Those are just the ones mentioned elsewhere in this thread.
There's always profit in predicting the end of the world.