I think you have to judge if you've been a top 10% team member in the past and are capable of being one in the future. If you're not, this is unlikely to happen to you. The reality is, most companies do this. And as a company gets larger, they get this down to a science. The calculus here is pretty simple because the company (whether you're a startup or Google) is very incentivized to retain it's top-tier talent who can go and work anywhere they want.
No company will promise you millions of dollars in long-term incentivized compensation (whether that's a stock option or a RSU) because it's highly dependent on the output of the individual and circumstance. I do think you can safely assume this is happening all around you (like I said: I meet many people who we cannot get) but they may not be publicizing it on forums like HackerNews (I am not sure many people find it kosher to boast that they made a lot of money as opposed to people who have been burned).
To be constructive though, I think prospective employees could ask the following set of questions to figure this out:
- Are there people in your company that are making above $X dollars a year in total compensation (options + salary)? I'd like to know what's possible if I worked hard and made a huge contribution.
- If I worked very hard and killed it, what kind of total compensation could I expect down the road? How is it split between long-term incentives like options and salary?
- What's an example of a project that someone did an amazing job on that changed the trajectory of the company? Was this rewarded? (Does the company have projects that they valued and has acknowledged that it made a difference?)
- How long has the most tenured Engineer in the company been at the company? What about the 2nd most tenured? 3rd? (This can tell you if the company has talent at the company they believe is top-tier and if they value them presumably because they are incentivized to stay)
I am sure there are other questions you could ask but these were just the ones at the top of my head that I feel would be pretty convincing.