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A first approximation would suggest doubling programming salaries would only change their strategies from "fund 100 and hope for 1 to be good" to "fund 50 and hope for 1 to be good". More selective, sure, but not game-changingly so.

Not sure that would be an improvement. If funding gets tighter and more selective, their selection criteria might become pedigree and connections instead of who has the better idea and team.

The very reason they fund 100 and hope for 1 is that all the analysis and data in the world have not helped narrow likely success criteria beyond 'fund the team.' What's stopping you from starting a VC fund that's REALLY CAREFUL with investments?