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Comment by raquo | Hacker News Reader

Navalny and Kasparov are in trouble because they had a shot at gaining popular momentum. Khodorkovsky privately expressed desire for a more free Russia to Putin, and was shot down as a warning to others.

Putin prosecutes everyone who goes against him apart from allowing a minimal opposition to exist for the sake of appearance and venting off angry people's steam.

"Shut up, look down and you'll be allowed to live" is a very popular theme in Russia across all levels from the president down to local municipal offices. If you go against those in power you will be persecuted proportionally to their power.

The important thing to understand about modern Russia is that there is no separation of power. Putin owns the parliament, the government, the military, and the judges. As a corollary, everyone is guilty of something, and if not, they are made to be.

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Interestingly enough there may be growing discontent even among the oligarchs, Putin's inner circle.[0]

0: http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/dec/21/vladimir-putin-...

Putin owning the parliament, the government, the military, and the judges is not the problem. The problem is that he's not able to, or not willing to, use all that power to improve life in Russia.

But that is the problem – he has no incentive to do anything good for the country because he has absolute power and controls mass media. He is not accountable to anyone.

In fact, he sort of benefits from people struggling. When you're hungry you don't care about democracy that much.

By the way, Russians' lives did improve relative to early 1990s which is what most people remember most vividly. It's just that Putin has little to do with it, it's just a matter of rising oil prices and increased trade.

To be fair, I don't think it's that simple. He must do at least some good for the country, or the country would suffer and he wouldn't have much to parasitize upon. He must be beyond any imaginable madness to play "let's see how long I can fuck with this country"-type of game, so, by Hanlon's razor, I hypothesize it's more like he's trying to do some good (and has incentive to do so), but has completely weird ideas on what's good and by which means it could be achieved.

Still, no matter what Putin's thinking, I don't like what's going on.

Well, he does some good, sure, the kind that any generic country manager would do. Normal maintenance-mode deeds of good. But I can't recall any significant positive things that he did in the last few years, other than providing significant state support if you give birth to or adopt your second child ($10K I think). Maybe you can add Skolkovo to the list, but we are yet to see how that pans out. For now it feels like a money grab... but then again, what isn't.

On the flip side, rampant corruption makes government spending incredibly inefficient. Putin could kill all this off in a year if he wanted to, but he doesn't, because he knows how to work this kind of system. Be closer to the top, get more benefits to screw everyone else. That makes for a very stable power structure. No one will rise against him because all those with any sort of power are part of the scheme and treasure their position in the food chain.

So, even though Russia is filthy rich with oil money (50% of federal budget), they can only use a tiny fraction of that money for actual improvements to the country. Russia could by far surpass Eastern Europe in quality of life today if its government was working with any comparable efficiency, but that is the opposite of what is happening.

> Russia is filthy rich with oil money

but that money has to go somewhere - what is being spent on? Any sort of domestic production is surely going to improve the lives of some people (ala, trickle down effect).

Also, the oil money can't last - there's limited oil after all. If the country can't produce other things except natural resources, it's going to get fucked, only a matter of time. And world war 2 is essentially a fight for resources.

The money goes to corrupt officials and contractors, the Russian 1%. Apart from some normal stuff they spend it on luxury goods – iphones, bentleys, jets, yachts, depending on the level. Showing off your status like that is exceedingly popular in Russia.

At the same time, Russia produces very few such goods and thus much of this money simply flows out of the country. Besides, rich people spend a much lower percent of their income than the average Ivan does, so they park their savings offshore – in foreign bank accounts, real estate, etc. The reason they do it is because anything they have in Russia can be taken away in a matter of hours if they ever find themselves on the wrong side of the power field.

So yes, as you see corruption leads to capital outflow which is a real problem in Russia. In fact, we had some new laws passed to address that, not sure about the extent or effectiveness.

You're right though, Russia is beginning to see resource exhaustion – easily accessible forests, oil fields, etc. are gradually drying up. That's why we're ramping up arctic research for example. So while oil money won't last forever, we could have used it to kick-start our economy and infrastructure. There are so many talented engineers in Russia.

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