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In pure logical terms, why is "competent, and erroneously concluded that NK is responsible" not an option? Leaving that out seems based purely on opinion and not in any reported or historical facts.

Smart people make mistakes, too.

In fact, I'm not sure why competence or incompetence affects the second half of your scenarios at all.

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Reply to EDIT: Your logical estimation was based on the wholesale elimination of several options, of which, I think "competent but wrong" has the largest possibility.

I don't think which I believe and why matters much here, but this is a "false choice" fallacy that seems to be based on personal opinion and doesn't accurately set up the question for others to answer. I think that should be called out.

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