"I totally think climate change is involved," Lahner says. "I just don’t have evidence yet."
Closed tab.
"I totally think climate change is involved," Lahner says. "I just don’t have evidence yet."
Closed tab.
You don't have to be a genius to see the climate is changing.
Now for the root cause, I don't know, but human pollution is certainly not helping.
Climate change is inevitable. It's happened before many times in the history of the earth, and will happen again. The behaviour of man and it's resulting emissions are largely agreed to have been impactful on the rate of change.
However, I've seen statisticians and scientists poking rational holes in research (and pilloried for daring to do so by the green lobby). So I default to my standard position, which is that both sides are a bit wrong and the truth is somewhere in the middle. I'll stay here for a while, it's comfortable.
I implore you, (as you seem a reasonable fellow who values science) to give it a watch and see if you still feel the same way. I'm willing to watch or read any counter argument you care to link if you will do me the same courtesy.
Some googling suggests I am wrong on that though as they claim agriculture is responsible for just 18% of the greenhouse gas (of course one gets wildly differing values depending where you look).
My comment wasn't meant to imply that fossil fuels/CO2 isn't relevant, but it's not the whole story. I was clearly wrong as to the extent of agricultural impact :)
As for the rest of it, I don't deny climate change. I don't pretend that humans have no impact the rate of change. I get uncomfortable with the way it's a "cause", by the way a statistician who questions methodology is attacked not answered etc etc. It makes me doubt the numbers, not the underlying principles (which are experimentally demonstrable)
http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/
I'm still looking for a non-movie version that shows the whole curve we have (not just the direct measurements).
edit: forgot the link
Some more good writeups: https://www.skepticalscience.com/argument.php http://climatechange.procon.org/
If anyone has questions - I study this stuff.
b - click the "show more" button. The text underneath the video is littered with references.
Your reaction seems to be anger-fueled climate change hate that stops you from thinking in a rational, open minded way.
Edit: Gender Error
Science is all about coming up with a range of different models that attempt to explain the universe, and then tying our damnedest to disprove as many of them as we can. That way we can be left with the best possible explanations for the phenomena that we observe based on our current level of understanding.
We have tried our hardest to bring down the theory of anthropogenic climate change, probably so more than any other theory in the history of science. But every time we try we have failed[0]. We cannot be certain about anything, but if we keep pushing beyond reasonable doubt then we go beyond skepticism and into denial.
(corrected typo)
Besides, the sea is getting measurably hotter and more acidic and from the article, which you say you did not read, some of the starfish recovered when put in cooler water:
The virus probably isn’t the whole story, both Lahner and Raimondi say. Lahner took sea stars that were disintegrating at 54 degrees Fahrenheit and cooled their water to 50 degrees. "They all went from falling apart, having their viscera hanging out, to pretty healthy in a day," she says. "I came back, and they were like, ready for the cover of Vogue. They were perfect." So temperature may play a role in the animals’ ability to recover as well.
The north Pacific basin, on average, has warmed by about half a degree centigrade from 1955 to 2013, according to data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. "That’s kind of a scary number," says Andy Allegra, a NOAA data specialist. "It’s very large."
" ... He hesitates to chalk up the wasting event to climate change. But he does worry all the same. ..."
Closed tab with still open mind.
Also just because it is related to climate change doesn't mean it is bad...
If it turns up in a paper at the end and is peer reviewed, then it has some credence but before that, nada.
Feynman is rolling in his grave again...
Edit: if you downvote, explain yourself or you're a coward and a hypocrite.
"I think it's X. But I don't have any evidence yet."
If you don't have any evidence, you shouldn't be talking about it to a journalist. Who, quite predictably, is going to make a big deal out of it.
This sort of thing actively hurts the climate change cause. It's bad, and shouldn't be done.
There was a significant populist anti-relativity movement in Germany in the 1920s: http://www.mpiwg-berlin.mpg.de/en/news/features/feature7
>Although they had previously played no role in German academic life, during the 1920s scores of self-proclaimed researchers alleged to have proved the theory of relativity to be scientifically incorrect. Because the arguments set out in hundreds of ensuing publications frequently rested on fundamental misunderstandings of Einstein’s new theory, their accounts have largely been ignored by traditional history of science.
>Einstein’s opponents were simply not prepared to question their own worldviews and instead sought alternative explanations for why their objections were disregarded by the academics. With time, many turned to conspiracy to account for their marginal status: plots favoring Einstein, so they imagined, explained his success and their marginalization. Having reached this point, any sort of resolution of the controversy had become impossible.
And from a review of the book ( http://arxiv.org/ftp/arxiv/papers/1111/1111.2181.pdf )
>Nevertheless, anti-relativists were convinced that their opinions were being suppressed. Indeed, many believed that conspiracies were at work that thwarted the promotion of their ideas. The fact that for them relativity was obviously wrong, yet still so very successful, strengthened the contention that a plot was at play—and some anti-relativists were convinced that the co-conspirators were Jewish. Jews were held to dominate both the newspaper business and the new discipline of theoretical physics; they could thus easily advertize one of their own (Einstein) and his fallacious work (relativity). Gehrcke, for instance, kept emphasizing that the successes of relativity could only be explained by a state of “mass hypnosis”, brought about by excessive and one-sided reporting.
Hmm…
That the situation climate change is in. So it's not a comparable situation.
If you need proof this kind of thing hurts the climate change cause, look at this thread, which is nearly entirely a debate over her one statement and nothing about any actual science.
To ask for rationality and the application of the scientific method results in claims of denialism and instant burying of the opinion.
That's not acceptable.
Once you have found that a species is being wiped out, you could stand on the sidelines and measure its decline, watching dispassionately, knowing that you can reach a good solid conclusion about what was killing them when the last dissection is fully documented, or you could chose to interfere and try and prevent the extinction.
However, if what is killing them is well funded human activity, you do not have a hope in hell of interfering successfully without getting political.
Thought experiment:
An astronomer sees a comet approaching earth, that will kill billions.
He wants to prevent those deaths.
He starts campaigning for methods to prevent that: comet deflection, shelter building, whatever.
Seems logical and humane to me.
All of which need testing first before you start waving your hands around and start saying "WE'RE GOING TO FUCKING DIE - RUN!"
Not acting is a choice as well, and everyone bears the responsibility for that too.
And you say it is unacceptable for them to advocate doing anything?
http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/risks/a410777.html
Current impact risks overview is here. 50% chance of a large object would certainly be unprecedented.
http://arxiv.org/pdf/0804.1126.pdf
Now, replace the comet watchers with paleoclimate researchers finding out what happened when the planet last time crossed 450 PPM (the other way around).
a) suddenly out of the blue, a Ford Transit mutates into a toaster.
b) someone is "pretty sure it is related to the impending comet impact".
c) Everyone goes YAY SCIENCE!!!
Sorry but derision is the only thing left. It's not science, it's religion.
a) suddenly out of the blue someone delivers a load of fish.
b) Some guy doesn't notice this and goes "pretty fucking sweet; I'm totally wasted on mushrooms and I reckon that bearded dude over there turned that loaf of bread into all those fish. Damn I've got the munchies."
c) HE'S THE FUCKING MESSIAH.
There is no causality chain established other than a hunch.
I do agree that some things are perhaps too easily reported or assumed to be caused by climate change when there is not much evidence to support that (yet).
If we do spend the time, money, and effort to do things like reduce emissions, will we be worse off than we were? Would it not make more sense to use renewable energy resources, and save up the 'easy' sources of energy (oil, coal, etc) for other applications?
But blaming everything on climate suddenly isn't the right answer. Perhaps someone lost a ship load of PCP in the sea and they just snuffed it. And they're trying to hide that.
Another hypothesis that could be tested rather than "fuck blame it on climate so we can get some funding and get some nice new Herman Miller chairs and a new MacBook each"
1. The reason for the problem is always climate change, otherwise there is no reason. For example, credit bubbles, rising autism rates and people in other countries that don't like us happen spontaneously all by themselves, unless they are caused by climate change.
2. The solution for any problem, including climate change, is always to spend more money. Especially when it comes to education, national defense and health care. Spending more money is the only effective solution to all problems. Once the cost to solve a problem is estimated in a news article the only thing required to fix the problem is for the government to spend the specified amount of money.