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Comment by SiVal | Hacker News Reader

I think you're right, but Apple does exactly that, so it's clearly possible to succeed that way. Whether it's possible for anyone but Apple to succeed that way is another question. I think it might be--say a Chinese company with Chinese customers, or a future Google-only ecosystem, or an Amazon that negotiates a huge range of discounted offerings (20% discount at Starbucks and thousands of other brick & mortar restaurants and shops as long as you buy with your Amazon phone through the Amazon retail network, etc.

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With the iPhone Apple only had to be better than a smart phone, which they did. With Android Google had to be better than a smart phone, cheaper than an iPhone, or at least just as good and they basically did that.

Today if you launch something new you need to be able to compete with the value in the iOS and Android ecosystems to draw people and that's a VERY big hurdle. Microsoft is trying their hardest but can't get it done.

There is no surprise here. Amazon's software ability and follow through is best describe as "exists" and the third party ecosystem is tiny. I'd rather have any $200 Android phone (even a low quality one) than a free Fire Phone and I like Amazon.

"Here's a phone, it has no popular apps, and they'll probably never be available!" Yeah. Same thing that killed the Pre. Same thing that's killing Windows Mobile.

All Amazon needs is something great that Apple and Google can't offer. For example, if I had an Amazon phone that paid for itself each month with, say, discounts on shopping, gas, restaurants, etc., I'd get it without hesitation. It might be a second phone or phones for my kids. If enough people did so, the Amazon market would be big enough for app developers to target and easier to target (and test, and make money with) than the far more diverse Android market. The iPhone apps I care about would soon be available, and I could then save a bundle by going Amazon only.

I'm just saying that it's still too soon to say that nothing significantly better than iPhone and its apps, or cheaper than Android and its apps, will ever be possible from a third platform.

You're underestimating Amazon's software muscle, they have some very hard hitting teams. Plenty of PhDs, old-time Lispers, etc.

I have a Kindle Fire HDX 8.9' tablet, the hardware is top notch and there are plenty of apps. From what I know, if an Android app doesn't heavily rely on Google proprietary APIs, like Maps, it's trivial to put it on the Amazon store.

But yeah, the phone needed to be 2-3 times cheaper to sell well.

> You're underestimating Amazon's software muscle, they have some very hard hitting teams. Plenty of PhDs, old-time Lispers, etc.

Call me when they can figure out that $.99 == $.99 100% of the time. [Hint: At least once every few months, this isn't true for at least one of their back end services and I have to clean up after it. This is just one issue of many they have, including the fact their "primary key" for items (ASINs) can be duplicated across multiple products.]

I think many, many people overestimate Amazon's technical capability.

They are competent but they are not special.

Hell, they can take up to 8 days to ship something from a warehouse sometimes.

Apple did it first, and by now, they created a compelling ecosystem that many do not feel is "restricted"

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