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Comment by pawelkomarnicki | Hacker News Reader

I don't what to think about that, because due to severe sinusitis I kind of lost my smell sense when I was a teenager (I'm almost 30 now), yet I can smell pretty strong odours (mostly alcohol smell sensation and peppermint). It can't be really true that it's "5 years and you're dead" :D

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The predictive power of the diagnosis, according to the article, depends on the loss of the smell being caused by the body's failure to regenerate the tip of the olfactory nerve through new stem cells. In your case, the cause is entirely different, and so your loss of smell doesn't have the same meaning. For example, if someone had his olfactory nerve surgically removed, it obviously would not mean he was likely to die within five years.

From the sampled individuals, they calculated:

P(die within 5 years | healthy sense of smell in 1st test) = 0.1

P(die within 5 years | moderate sense of smell in 1st test) = 0.19

P(die within 5 years | bad sense of smell in 1st test) = 0.39

Notably, all participants were at least 57 years old.

From what I understand, the paper is suggesting that it is a statistical tendency rather than a hard and fast rule.

The people in the study were older than you are now, so you're good for a while yet.

Nothing scientific in the "test". Looks like a "drama seeking" article to me.

Agreed. A little over the top for me to believe it.

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