Disproof by counter example is not disingenuous. I pointed out that what vampirechicken wrote was clearly wrong then tried to get at the heart of the issue. I did not say to count each dollar of maximum bonus (or even expected bonus) as the same value as a dollar of salary, in fact I said the opposite. The value of a bonus is the expected value minus the cost of volatility. You correctly point that you should also subtract the cost of delay.

When you are comparing your current compensation package to the industry standard the better one is the one that is worth more to you. You might put an unusually high or low value on risk or the cost of delaying compensation till the end of the year. You might value the free lunches or health insurance more or less than the average worker. Since you are the one receiving the compensation package what matters is what it is worth to you.

The bottom line is that market rate is total compensation, not just salary. If a company offers you a 'market rate' salary with no bonus and no benefits then that offer is bellow market rate. If an offer has lower salary, but great benefits and a huge bonus then (if you will actually get the bonus) that offer is above market rate.