- The default rate is higher than I expected. In the early years, the A credit rating was reported as nearly 0 defaults, and B had few. But now that is not the case. 5-6% of my loans have defaulted. Most are A/B rated Some not even making a single payment.
- The credit standards seem to move a lot
- The quality of borrower is worse than it used to be. When I started I used to scrutinize every loan, I'd be impressed to see how much detail the borrowers would share. I liked to read their stories and learn to trust that they would repay me. Now you don't see much. It's all button mashing. There are enough lenders to fund all the loans, nobody puts the effort in. I don't even bother doing the manual search anymore either.
- The dashboard says my net annualized returns are around 5%. I guess that is about right. But it's not liquid. If I liquidated all the notes today, I'd probably lose all of the gains. If I stopped reinvesting, I'd probably see a bunch more defaults bring my returns down before i got all the principal back
What I ultimately ended up doing, and maybe this was their goal, is just to sign-up with their auto-invest system. They lowered the minimum down to something small like $5000, and you can twiddle a few pretty coarse knobs to say what kind of risk exposure you want. At that point it's completely hands-off for me, and I just track the progress - every time I accrue $25 worth of cash from the existing investments, they buy another note on my behalf.
I'd definitely be careful how much cash you throw at this, I thought it'd be an interesting experiment and my portfolio has done fine, but it's hard to quantify the risks. If the economy tanks, how much will the default rate increase? Also as others have mentioned, the secondary market for these notes is really poor - you'd take a huge loss to liquidate your position.
So, in my case, I did three portfolios - a fully manual hand-picked small portfolio, a blended approach with a higher risk, and then a portfolio of all high-interest, high-risk loans.
The hand-picked ones did extremely well, netting me 8.5%. The very high-risk ones got around 5-6%, and the blended around 4%.
It wasn't bad returns, but the interest income (iirc) is taxed as income, and that wasn't ideal for me.
EDIT: because I opted not to reinvest, all the numbers above are what my return is as my portfolios all wind down. At the beginning the returns were much better, 13-15%, but a significant percentage of people get about 75% of the way through paying off their loans and then get behind and default.
Be forewarned, though, that you can't buy or sell loans on the 3rd party exchange with a tax advantaged account.
It gives you a model for 3-30 month returns, adjusted for losses. I have an experimental amount invested in LendingClub, about 85% loaned out at the moment, and have been in for only a quarter year so far. I've been hand picking loans in small increments, but it's too early to say anything about the quality of my pick criteria because so far there hasn't been so much as a late payment yet.
edit: correcting default stats.
edit: so i just checked for real. looks like it's been over a year (time flies). for the record, it shows 199 (instead of my stated 200) because i put $50 into one investment instead of the standard $25. http://i.imgur.com/o2DdDLU.png
It's funny you mention that. I went through a phase where I started doing $50 and $100, becuase I couldn't find enough high quality borrowers. I figured that since I trusted these people with $25, why not a little more. It just hurts more when they default. When I see a high value note charged-off, I just feel more betrayed than usual.
edit: updated with actual chart and data (i guessed the first time)
Most such reports probably won't end up in the comments here.
Of course, as far as I can see this is just a checkbox saying "I agree and meet these standards." No way for them to verify.