Hacker News Reader

Comment by ivan_gammel | Hacker News Reader

Looks like people beyond the borders are misinformed about Russian internal politics. Putin is, no doubt, the evil, but the statement about revolutions is true. There's no point in converting ex-nuclear superpower to failed state just because current government sucks. Successful democratic revolution may happen when there are trusted new leaders who can take the power, transform the state and step back on next elections. State of the opposition in Russia is so pathetic, that, despite among these people there are some really smart guys, it won't be able to run the government. We have to wait until we'll see grassroot support for the young generation of politicians with crystal-clean record (Maria Gaidar, Luba Sobol etc) and good organization capable of fighting even on rigged elections. If revolution will overthrow Putin tomorrow, we'll see new NSDAP as a replacement. There's no point in replicating the Arab spring mess now.

View on HN

So if a junta is brutal enough and keep the quality of the opposition down (Siberia, assassinations, etc) then you think it is wrong to try to overthrow the dictator?!

From 1984 "If you want a picture of the future, imagine a boot stamping on a human face — forever."

How can things change, then? An invasion is not better than a revolution. Economic pressures work for most countries today (not e.g. North Korea) but not for oil countries -- note that most problem states do live on resource exports (see resource curse).

I don't think so. I think that people of any country have to look at all existing opportunities. For North Korea, some African or Asian countries there's no point in waiting for good and revolution is the only way for changes. As for Russia (and, possibly, for China), we have the options. The political game is quite dangerous here and political institutions are imperfect but they still may evolve in time to something better. Putin, compared to the dictators in the rest of the world, is very soft and weak: his power is based on popular support and he is well-aware that he has to distribute wealth to the people, boosting economy and imitating western-style democracy. Either he will keep the wealth growing (and thus the country open - it's essential for Russian economy, so millenials will travel and get educated about the benefits of western life style), or the popular discontent will blow him out of Kremlin. We still hope that the first option will be the case. We need more educated people to build reliable and inclusive political system.

Thanks for a reasoned and informed opinion on this subject.

How do you think about this:

You should not help dictators based on natural resources economically. Countries built on industry will have to democratize when they reach a certain economic level. Countries who get their money from natural resources will just generate more money in Swiss banks if the prices increase.

Edit: pcj50, I doubt even the Saudi A king describes his country as democratic. The West is enough dependent on them that they get a free card. Realpolitik in a democracy means being nice when it isn't too expensive (or the voters back home cares). Dictators are even worse. In sum, there are only varying levels of grey, no black/white. But, well, you knew all this.

Russian economy is not based on natural resources, actually. Russia was industrialized in 3 waves (development of mountain manufacturing civilization in Urals in XVII-XVIII, in 1870-1913 and finally by Stalin) long time ago and now has visible post-industrial sector (8.5% of GNP is generated by Internet and IT companies). The patterns that apply to dictatorships of banana republics here don't work: it will not be able to replace import of iPhones, but it is capable of replacing the western technologies that are blocked by sanctions. It can sustain any sanctions by manufacturing luxury goods for elites and providing food and fun for ordinary people. Upper middle class in Moscow will suffer, of course, from the lack of iPhones, but they are hated by the rest of the country, anyway, so who cares.

The only way to push democracy to such a big and advanced country is to increase cultural exchange, encouraging tourism and supporting Russian education system.

That's a reasonable principle. But it won't be applied consistently, because Saudi Arabia would count as an unfree country based on natural resources.

Putin has built a very stable power structure, I'll give him that. And he's crazy popular in Russia, not least because of the fact that he controls all the media.

The only two ways I can see his regime could be defeated are:

* Turmoil within his ranks leading destabilizing his power structure

* Significant economic downturn (e.g. oil price falls or oil trading is hindered by sanctions)

One could argue that the growing discontent with Putin among the younger generation could lead to his demise, but I don't think it would work. They can protest all they want but as long as 90% of the population are successfully hypno-toaded, Putin can deal with the protesters in any way he wants.

Reply on news.ycombinator.com