I recall Stripe was being positioned as a PayPal alternative to collecting international funds, but that wasn't the point.
My point is there is no black swan here. Far from it. It makes no sense in this context.
My point is there is no black swan here. Far from it. It makes no sense in this context.
I think most investors would have claimed that Stripe would probably make money but would never get huge. Now they're pushing $2B - that is an extremely unlikely outcome and so fits sama's definition of black swan.
I do not recall Stripe being positioned as a PayPal alternative really ever, but certainly not when it launched.
I also believe that Sam was first made aware of Stripe much earlier than most people and it probably did seem like quite a black swan at the time.
I know the very first time that I heard the idea for Stripe it was definitely considered a "crazy" idea. I would easily categorize it as a black swan investment.