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Comment by programminggeek | Hacker News Reader

1. Figure out your market before you build anything. Talk to them, get to know them, figure out what they need.

2. Ask them for an intent to purchase or to reserve a spot in line or whatever.

3. Build landing pages and advertise them so that you can validate your ability to acquire customers before building anything.

4. Create a human machine that looks/feels like the real machine you are going to build later.

5. Sell your fake, semi-terrible, human powered machine that pretends to be your real system until you have enough sales to justify building the real product.

6. Build and sell your real product.

If you do #1-5 before you ever build what you would normally start by building, you'll already have experience selling and marketing your product before you ever actually build it.

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Serious question regarding #1: What if I am the market because I am addressing a need I have that others have not addressed? Is the question then whether others have the same general needs?

Do I get to walk around thinking I have instant validation, or am I rolling the dice on the likelihood that others have the same problem?

You'll still want to validate that it's a problem others share, that others share deeply, and that others share the same way.

That last part is critical. Human psychology is a funny thing. Two people might experience the same pain point, but articulate two wildly different needs. Or they might have tangential pain points, nominally clustered around the same topic. And sometimes, one user's problem is another user's solution. All of these things can happen.

It is totally valid and worthwhile to start with a pain point you have. A lot of startups began that way. But never assume you (n=1) stand in for an entire market. You can't use personal anecdote or self-insight as a proxy for market validation. Not even Steve Jobs got to do that, despite popular misconceptions.

Insight can be a path to validation. A shortcut starting point. But treat it like a hypothesis, not a foregone conclusion. Hypotheses should be tested.

I was once in that situation, and I learned that yes, you do need to validate that others have the same issue and that they're willing to pay for the solution and that there are enough such people to make this a viable business.

The product I created was a tool for a small niche of artists (of which I was a part). It solved a major problem I had, and I knew that others had the same problem. I even ran it by a few other artists and they loved the idea. What I failed to validate was whether they'd pay for the service. As it turns out, most artists in this niche can't afford to pay even $18/month for a service, and they're just as happy using a manual alternative.

What if you had used a freemium model and delivered your product as a free app with IAP or ads and such? Or was the market too small in such a case?

In hindsight I think the market was just far too small and did not have the expendable income to pay for such a service.

I was about to ask the exact same question. I'm trying to solve a problem that I (and some colleagues) face daily, which I assume others must face too. Actually, I sorta know others have had the same problem because when I first looked for a solution, I came across a few posts and discussions offering terrible solutions that I didn't like. After being annoyed enough, I figured I'd try and see if I could develop a solution.

Until you talk to other people, you're rolling the dice. Trust your gut and go ask a bunch of people if they have the same need (and if it's going to be a paid thing, whether or not they'd pony up for it if it existed). If the answers come back positive, high five yourself and go make it!

What if a competitor has already validated the market for me? For example, they exist and have existed for a few years, but still don't service my need. Is it valid to assume I can attack their market share?

Assumptions are inherently risky but ultimately you always end up having to go with your gut. That doesn't mean you shouldn't do the background research and talk to people first though! Even if you are right, you'll very likely discover that the proto idea you have now needs changing or tweaking in ways you would never have imagined had you not talked to some people in your target audience first.

I'm actually working on something right now that started like that. There are a load of large, well established incumbents operating in the market I'm about to try and pitch a tent in but none of them offer a service that does what I want. My gut told me I wasn't the only one who'd prefer my approach to the problem, so I talked to a bunch of people, refined the idea a little, did a load of research and when that all came back positive I quit my job and started building it. I'll let you know how it pans out :)

I know that as engineers we'd like to avoid talking to strangers as much as possible, but there's simply nothing better than speaking with your potential customers.

Having a competitor is a good sign, but how do you know they're profitable? How do you know they're solving the problem well enough that they're even worth imitating? How do you know they're not frustrating the hell out of their users? If you speak to potential customers, you'll know.

This is critical. As a marketer, I've seen - far too often, mind you - a severe disconnect between the perception of one's customers, and the reality.

Not saying that you need to have full personas, in which you include ALL motivations, demographics, customer journeys - the works - but it helps to have something on paper that you can refer to.

The beauty of it is you can always change them!

Well, I've been reading the competitor's press releases mainly and reviews of their product on the internet. Since I've never done this before, I just don't know how much of their frustrations I can count as a form of validation. :-)

Why are you resistant to doing the market valuation? It is cheap and beneficial. No matter hire certain you are it will validate and refine your offering. You get to learn the market size, the price point and create reasonable estimates for adoption all while collecting free feedback on features.

No matter how certain you are talk with your customers!

No resistance, just trying to get some input on how to do this stage of the process properly. In particular, I've been reading a lot of feedback on competitors' products.

I talk to people, but I need to talk to more.

If they've validated the market, then it should be easy to throw up a landing page with a pitch and a price and get people to reserve a spot in line.

Don't assume anything, get real leads and/or sales and talk to them about your planned offering and pricing.

Use data.

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