How about "Possibly, they see people making ridiculous amounts of money in tech and want a piece of it?"
I kept in contact with some of the folks who dropped out or switched majors - they're working at convenience stores and the like.
What I don't know is if the proportion of people who stick with it is about the same from year to year, or if the years with massive enrollment increases have much higher attrition rates.
Alas, that graph shows a big peak of CS graduates around 86/87 or so. I didn't get out until 88, after the wave - and the 87 market crash-let. I had to work too much to do my upper division work in 2 years, so it took me 3 - but I got to learn "dBASE" in my intern-like job, which was largely obsolete by the time I finished school. Glad we learned some C in school (even if I liked Pascal better).
It's worth noting that engineering salaries rise a lot quicker then traditional non engineering salaries, but the also plateau much earlier. The engineers making $150k with 8 years experience aren't far or are at the ceiling of their earning potential (without going the management or architect route).
It will be interesting to see if the continued increases will be sustainable over the long haul. From my non-scientific back of the napkin math it seems like NYC tech wages are up about 30% from where they were 4 years ago.
Factor in cost of living and you're really not making much more.
I live in Manhattan. Within some 2-digit amount of minutes, I can experience the Tribeca Film Festival, I can visit some of the best museums and galleries in the world, I can get involved in the thriving nightlife, dozens of top restaurants, hundreds of huge retailers, and a massive tech scene. Whether we're talking conferences or weekly meetups or user groups or opportunities like Hacker School, there's just a higher chance it's going on in NYC than in a smaller city. Obviously when it comes specifically to the tech scene SF+SV+Bay Area is the juggernaut, but comparing NYC and SF to some small town is comparing some top college football player to some NFL players to your local middle school's quarterback. Yes, if I lived in the Midwest, I could get a McMansion and slightly larger numbers in the bank account if my industry's salary doesn't scale well between city sizes (again, programming does), but is it really worth it to give up all the other opportunities and stuff in bigger cities?
Even within these areas, you want to compare your income with median in your closest neighbourhood of about 10,000 people. In most of these neighbourhoods with tech population, $90 would probably place you in bottom 30% bucket. In essence, you will be relatively "poor" and get pushed you out to fat outer areas of community where there are either no good schools, facilities and/or commute is ridiculous.
Always look at median of your target neighbour to compare your income, not the national median.
Follow the money!
(I think it's wise for students to be doing this.)
When I graduated, back in the mists of history in 2004, you'd be crazy to assume that a 5th year engineer salary package would be approaching $300k. There was a huge salary gap in finance's favor on day one, it got bigger every year, and it exploded once the financiers started to hit their 30s. That gap has narrowed considerably, at least for folks on that trajectory in their 20s. (I'll confess to not having a great understanding of what it looks like to be a 32 year old at Google. I mean, any 32 year old at Google who was with them in 2004 is now a multimillionaire several times over, but I don't know what the reasonable modeling is for expectations for being 32 in 2024.)
The folks who think they're going to be in the top 10th of engineers AmaGooFaceSoft hire this year in terms of career success 10 years out now have a reasonable expectation that that will be as lucrative as a top 10th finance career.
I guess $300k vs $500k is much improved compared to $1X0k vs $500k that we would have been looking at a decade ago though :P
In addition, perhaps the parity is better when you compare median results rather than upper quintiles.
Btw, first year management consultants make nowhere close to $100k (though they can make up for it with Starwood points and frequent flier miles on United -- no joke). You'll only top $100k once you're an associate, which is after your 2+2 (2 years as an analyst, 2 years of bschool). Only 3-5% of the analyst class goes straight to associate. Students who enter as an analyst are doing it primarily for the great education and training McK/BCG/Bain give you, and definitely aren't making the choice based on monetary incentives.
Do you get approximately 150k/yr of equity in the 5th year?
I think a lot of us are trying to understand the "300k/yr" part.
I wouldn't doubt to much that maybe a few people are getting paid that, but I doubt it's the median.
I never saw any convincing data on HN to back up the claims - it's always an anecdotal data point here and there. My guess is that a small fraction of the engineers actually make the stated figures, and confirmation bias leads HNers to believe that's the median pay.
When I was making six times what a new Camaro cost, I was just a 'worker bee' on a salary working on mostly military applied math and software around DC.
I didn't think that the income was so great: A new, two story, traditional, center hall floor plan house on a 1/4 acre lot cost three or four times what I was making. So, I didn't really have money enough to buy a house and support a family.
For $300 K in Silicon Valley, there is considerable question if that is enough to buy a nice house, say, 1/4 acre lot, two car garage, full basement, good insulation, central HVAC, four bedrooms, two baths, powder room, walk in closets, LR, DR, eat in kitchen, family room, deck and support a family.
People are attracted to high paying jobs not only for a financial gain. It's a signal that employer cares and other good people will be there.
(As a side note, a fair number of the people I know who are doing straight up startup-style "tech" jobs after graduation aren't even CS majors.)