In the scenario I modeled, I was assuming around ~3% growth.

Rent control definitely favors renting in a lot of situations. If you were at the whim of your landlord, then I could see buying being more attractive, especially in a market where housing prices are going up.

The real kicker about owning a house is that housing prices never go up a nice steady 2% or 3% per year. They go up 5% one year, then down 5% the next. If you don't have control over when you sell (loss of a job, etc), that can really hammer you.

Rents tend to increase in normal markets at about the rate of inflation, in crazy NYC/SV markets they increase faster while mortgages will stay the same (or can be reduced or offset). In the long run, $4100/mo in 2014 dollars will still be $4100/mo in 2014 dollars 29 years later. Meaning they'll be a fraction of of 2043 dollars via inflation. The mortgage then de facto goes down while rent will continue to increase at least with inflation (or at least it does historically).

So I live in rent controlled area in the bay area where I pay around $1500 for a 2 bedroom. Using this calculator, it seems like buying almost any kind of home in the bay area would be a very bad decision.