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Believe it or not, Israel already has sufficient reason not to fire theirs first. Try a thought experiment - what would happen to Israel if they did?

The only way I can imagine Israel getting away with dropping one on Iran is if Iran continues developing nuclear technology.

When I try that thought experiment, this is what happens:

1. The mother of all PR/lobbying campaigns successfully preserves US support. Especially since it would already be underway before the attack.

2. Nothing changes, except there's now a big radioactive hole somewhere.