Would you buy an eight year used Tesla for 30k? I'm a fan of Tesla and hope to be an owner some day, but I think the author is being overly optimistic here.
Also, as btian notes below, the electric drivetrain is also much simpler than a gasoline one, so it should be in much better shape relative to non-electric cars. I'm relatively optimistic because the part that depreciates the most is the battery: and if the rest of the car holds up well, then switching the battery at a lower cost (taking into account 8 years of battery tech advancement) should make for a pretty high resale value.
[1]: http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/cars/2013/04/02/elon-mus...
Failure of motor bearings is usually the result of improper mechanical installation causing undesirable forces acting on the bearings, or simply poor maintenance. Bearings should be inspected regularly for lubrication and uncharacteristic noises. Their life expectancy depends on factors previously cited. Most motor vendors typically recommend bearing replacement every two years, which I think will put a cramp in the Tesla maintenance scheme
What really is off-putting is that even if the car is well maintained and even parked. It will brick as from the degradation of the batteries. At some point the owner will have to invest in a new power pack. Not true of gas motors. I have a 66' galaxie in my driveway with its original motor its never had more than an oil and spark plug change and it has a life of nearly 50 years. I'd have bought at least 3 tesla power packs in the same time frame, even if the car just sat there.
Downvoted an honest question stated in a reasonable manner? Come on.
The last time I had an engine rebuilt (mid 1980s) it was over $1100, and this was for a 67 HP VW Beetle engine.
I find it... unlikely that you will be able to sell a 2014 Tesla model S for $30K in 2022.
You basically have to be a home owner in order to own an electric vehicle.
That's not an easy situation to solve either.
Having seen how the councils have added "club car" spaces for car rental schemes I could see them adding charge parking spaces, potentially with free electricity.
Hopefully this will be a non issue in a few years.
Could be a good incentive if you got free parking, or prime locations because you had an EV.
Also I don't see how the size of a parking lot changes things, if anything it means you could incentivise by having the EV slots closer to the attraction, plus have solar roofs to harness some cheap power.
Then I took a few other things into account: - Quantitatively, given the paucity of data on Model S resales (I've looked at this and I think prices are high because supply is low), what does depreciation history on the Roadster imply for the Model S looking forward? - Qualitatively, what is the impact of a battery swap say 8 or 10 years down the line, if the cost of the battery is approximately $12K (based on Tesla's earlier comments and the Roadster battery swap program) or less (if the Gigafactory succeeds)?
Now Tesla does have swappable packs but the unknown is, how much will a replacement pack of second or third generation cost and will you be able to install it in the first generation car; I will assume you can.
The Tesla lower depreciation is factor of limited supply and the author is taking a mighty big bet that demand will remain as high as it is. Given Tesla's stated goals for manufacture and the models coming this is not a good bet.
Toss in that California may cap tax incentives to EVs costing 60k or less; I would push that to 40K or less. The rich should never have been given help to buy a car in a price range they already purchase in. This car certainly did not need the incentive.
Electric motors are much less serviceable than gas engines at this point. There are still a lot of moving parts.
I think a tesla will lose value much faster than this person thinks as battery technology improves and the life of the existing battery pack declines.
Or the ones where Tesla purposes to charge you $100 to swap it out?
The infrastructure doesn't exist and building a "swap garage" is just a pipe dream unless it can service a large market... so having a propriety battery system doesn't lend itself to that...
Its cheaper to fill up my tank...
Better Place built quite a few battery swap locations, but due to their limited market (~1000 cars, compared more than 23,000 cars for Tesla already) they obviously failed.
The Tesla battery swaps are listed at between $60 and $80 which for a similar sedan (size, engine power, etc) is about the same as a full tank of gas.
The cost and serviceability of electric motors vs internal combustion engines reeks of BS and until you provide actual sources most of your arguments will have lost all credibility in my eyes.