Apple faces a severe potential financial crisis in coming years -- one that dwarfs Microsoft's. They rely so heavily on the premium subsidy for their revenue that if the subsidy is merely brought down to normal levels they will see a huge drop in revenue -- and this assumes that they keep selling the same number of phones.

Now that there are viable alternatives in Android, and to a lesser extent Windows Phones, with much lower subsidies, I think you'll see the carriers push these other devices.

And if we move to a model where consumers pay for the full price of the phone (which is what much of the world does today), then you'll actually see iPhone sales fall. Sub $200 low-margin phones are the future. Apple can still do well with a premium phone -- especially if the camera is really good, but I think it's a tougher niche than the high-end PC market.