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Comment by blinkingled | Hacker News Reader

I can't tell if I should be excited that Mike Judge is coming out with something new or downright hateful that I now have to almost certainly subscribe to HBO for whatever price the provider sees fit.

People like him should really follow Louis C K's example and make everything available over the web DRM free for a reasonable price. I can't think of a reason they would need HBO or FOX to make things happen. (On a second thought - Louis C K stand ups are one man show mostly but still for serials there must be a ton of independent investors willing to invest in the new model of delivering entertainment. There's Kickstarter even :))

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And until HBO offers even a semi-convenient way for me to pay, I'll just pirate their content like I always have.

I know the head of the HBO team here, and I asked him about that topic.

HBO has no incentive to offer streaming only subscriptions. Cable companies pay top dollar to offer HBO content, because putting HBO on a TV package increases the subscription to that package. Like For ever $1 cable companies pay for HBO, those cable companies make $3 from TV packages.

He said that HBO basically prints money, and does not give a damn.

That's fine, we'll just wait. Currently I just use a relative's account. But the day will come when cable companies are not able to afford these premiums, it is only a matter of time.

> But the day will come when cable companies are not able to afford these premiums, it is only a matter of time.

I think this is the most likely outcome. Though with the big failure of municipal internet access, I think cable companies will still be relevant, perhaps just as dumb-pipes, and not content providers.

What evidence can you present that cable companies are becoming less powerful or relevant? All I see is cable companies consistently increasing their power vs. content providers. The latest example being the Netflix/Comcast deal with Netflix paying Comcast. But there are others: Comcast bidding for Time Warner Cable, Verizon FIOS household numbers stalling (they're still a player but not taking much share). They're also becoming more vertically integrated - so buying more content companies themselves.

My take is that until there is another viable internet pipe to the home - wireless or fiber optic - the cable companies will continue to be relevant and powerful. Controlling the last mile to the consumer is just too powerful, especially when you look at how difficult and costly it is to do a new network at scale.

I think you just argued my point:

> I think cable companies will still be relevant, perhaps just as dumb-pipes, and not content providers.

That's fine, I just get the free service for 3 months then drop it, then do it again. For some reason At&t keeps letting me do this for over a year.

By "semi-convenient" you actually mean cheap. If you're a cord cutter all you have to do is sign up for an ~$80/month cable package that includes HBO and HBO Go. You wouldn't even need to install a shitty cable box. You could just use the HBO Go login to watch from your computer, laptop, table, apple tv, xbox, playstation, or whatever.

That's extremely convenient. It is not cheap, but it is convenient. :)

"I can't think of a reason they would need HBO or FOX to make things happen."

I can think of three: cost, distribution and risk.

The cost to produce the show likely isn't cheap - could be as high as $1m an episode, and the risk is you have a bomb after you've invested in, say 5-8 episodes. You could get investors to put in money - but who knows if Mike Judge is interested in that - he might just want to make a great show.

Or you just partner with HBO and get to make the show on a large budget with high end production values, along with HBO's very strong promotional arm to push it - and you still get a boatload of money plus residuals.

Louis CK can do what he does because he's selling a live show - the costs are predicable and one-time (or maybe a few times if he records multiple shows). Not that there isn't some risk - but Louis CK can also offset the cost side by what he gets on ticket sales - so he's probably even on the cost side before he even tries to sell it on the internet.

TL;DR: You can't compare filming a show with filming a series.

1$ Mil per show is cheap thats the cost of show run on shoe string a bit like Amanda Tapping did with her show Sanctuary.

Fringes pilot was round the 4 Mill mark.

big-budget shows can cost hundreds of thousands of dollars per episode to make. HBO has very deep pockets.

Yeah, but House of Cards is the perfect case study example of how it can work. Netflix has obviously broken new ground here where the old rules don't need to be so restrictive. For that matter, I currently live in China, and it's fantastic that I can watch House of Cards for free online legally because it's been properly licensed by the Chinese streaming company. Heck, it's so good, that I might have even paid for it.

House of Cards pitched HBO too. HBO could have had the show if they wanted it. Mike Judge and Kevin Spacey want to get paid to create the stories that they want to tell. They could care less about the business model and will move to new models when/if it makes sense. It's not their job to change how media is consumed. It's their job to make a great show. Louis doesn't release his show DRM free. He partnered with a network. For his standup special it made sense to release it through his website so he did. The creators have enough on their plate just to make something good. They are going to go where the money is now.

How is House of Cards an example of fronting production costs yourself then selling DRM-free copies direct to fans? HoC filming costs were ~$60 million per season, which is several million per episode, and were paid up front by Netflix when it outbid HBO/Showtime/AMC for the rights. The only novel thing about that show's production was releasing the whole series at once rather than one episode per week.

Millions you missed a Zero there

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