Comment by mikeash | Hacker News Reader

Comment by mikeash | Hacker News Reader

Parent Full thread

I don't believe that idea that other countries wouldn't do better.

They had the military radar data the night the plane went missing, indicating that the plane did not in fact crash near where the transponder shut down, but flew west for over an hour before disappearing off the radar in that direction.

Despite having this information available, they either ignored it or didn't think to ask for it or something, and as a result they wasted massive amounts of time and effort (theirs and that of other countries) searching the wrong ocean. For a week.

That military radar data is probably the most important information in the investigation that wasn't immediately known. Yet it didn't actually come to light until days later, and then when it did their immediate reaction was to deny that it was true! It took another couple of days before they finally settled down and admitted, yes, we tracked this plane flying completely out of the search area and far away from where we've been telling everyone it is. And we knew this for a couple of days, but we let everybody continue searching the wrong place anyway. In fact, we'll still let them keep searching for a couple more days before we refocus.

There is some serious WTF going on. I hope there is some massive coverup or conspiracy going on, because they're verging on criminally incompetent otherwise.

To give them the benefit of the doubt, when a plane's transponder shuts down over the ocean and isnt heard from again, it's very easy to leap to the obvious conclusion that it went down and focus on marshaling recovery resources, rather than thinking through how to test extremely low probability hypotheses like "the pilot turned off the electronics and flew in a completely different direction."

My understanding is that the military radar tracked the plane for hours after the transponder went off. This raises some important questions:

1. How did the military not know this plane disappeared from civilian tracking systems?

2. If they did know, why did they not scramble planes to check what's going on?

3. Why did they withhold for days the fact that the plane changed direction?

The GP is right: some serious WTF going on in Malaysia.

If it turned and were to follow established corridors, I can't imagine neighboring militaries would be particularly concerned. Even if they were paying attention to the transponders themselves, they might figure it was some sort of technical trouble--as long as the aircraft stays in the corridor, who cares? Some idiot flying along an established route without his transponder is a problem for ATC, not air defense, and that seems to be the best explanation for #1 and #3, probably even #2. Sure, Vietnam noticed and tried to inform Malaysia, but countries upstream from the route might not have cared (they probably wouldn't have seen it turn, either).

But you're right, Malaysia hasn't done a stellar job organizing the search and recovery (understatement of the year aware goes to...). The real problem, though, is that no one has any idea what's going on.

I admit. There's something fantastical to consider about a plane, under control of a rogue pilot (or pilots), clandestinely flying to a location for possible future use in an elaborate terror plot. The only caveat is that the logistics of such a thing would require so much preliminary planning in terms of fueling, storing/hiding the plane somewhere, or outright repainting it, that it very nearly requires the resources of a state actor or another determined (and secretive) foe. And who would be the target? The simplest solution, then, is to speculate that there was some sort of emergency on board, the pilots became confused (or incapacitated and the plane was operating on autopilot), and the aircraft is now at the bottom of the sea.

Returning to the article: It's easy to blame countries near the Indian Ocean of being highly secretive about their capabilities. I'm sure they are, of course, (and certainly need to be) but there's something about the elaborate hijacking plot that seems amazingly complicated and difficult to pull off. Moreover, as time wears on, the probability of being discovered increases, and I'm sure other states (Israel) might be keeping an eye on potential suspects (Iran) for such activity anyway, simply out of paranoia. Further, how easy is it to disappear a plane and keep it hidden for weeks, months, or indefinitely? One instance [1] comes to mind, but with 239 people on board...? That's to say nothing about finding a runway large enough to land such a beast that is also not well monitored.

I'll say this: It'd make great fiction, certainly, but I think the crux of the matter is something we don't do well as humans. We don't like to admit that we don't know the answer. And this could become the mystery of the century if it's never found. However, I'm inclined to believe it was an emergency of some sort (at least I hope). But, the only thing that doesn't mesh well with that theory is the engine monitoring data, but we might very well discover there was a valid reason for that (incapacitated pilots?).

For the sake of the families, I hope something is discovered soon--if only for closure. I can't even begin to imagine the pain they're feeling not knowing what became of their loved ones.

[1] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/N844AA

The effects of hypoxia are profound on human performance -- it's not as simple as being unconscious and incapacitated, it can be irrational and incoherent.

As an example, listen to the incoherency of this professional pilot suffering effects of hypoxia at 32,000 feet (flying a LearJet 25) -- he sounds falling over drunk, complaining about flight control problems, oblivious to the profound effects of hypoxia that he and his copilot are experiencing:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_IqWal_EmBg

Then listen to him after being coached to descend to 11,000 feet when everything really is "A-OK".

He sounds like a completely different person at 4:10.

The co-pilot who sounds young and spritely at 4:00 (who me? unconscious, nah, just a micro-nap) had this written about him: "the unconscious first officer's arm was moving violently and uncontrolled all the time kicking the controls and thus disengaging the autopilot"). [1]

While I find all the wild speculation fascinating, sadly I believe the highest probability explanation is still a fire or depressurization, resulting in a pilot acting incoherently.

Of course, all stones should still be turned over in the search, but there's been no evidence so far that changes the scenario above from being the highest probability in my assessment.

[1] http://avherald.com/h?article=428a428b

Hypoxia is another consideration that's worth looking at and would certainly explain the wild altitude changes. It's a shame that it's not being explored as closely as some of the other theories.

Particularly when you consider it was responsible (at least partially) for the downing of Helios flight 522 in 2005.

Personally I think there's a decent possibility that whoever was manning the radars that night was in on it somehow. It's a crazy idea and it's not too likely, but no other possibility seems particularly likely either. It does neatly explain how the military "ignored" an unauthorized intrusion into their airspace as well as why they "didn't notice it" for some days afterwards.

I'm not too serious about this, yet at the same time it seems like the least improbable idea.

That's true, and that might account for a day, perhaps two, before discovering the military radar data. But they didn't start searching west until four days after the disappearance, and didn't stop searching east until even later. Even crazier, they started searching west while denying reports about the military radar data. That military radar information leaked to the public three days after the plane disappeared but was denied until a couple of days later. Crazier still, Wikipedia says:

> According to the Vietnamese Deputy Minister of Transport, Pham Quy Tieu, "We informed Malaysia on the day we lost contact with the flight that we noticed the flight turned back west but Malaysia did not respond."

Malaysia had all the info they needed to know that the plane had not crashed into the Gulf of Thailand almost immediately. Ideally they would have acted on it right away. Realistically, I can understand a day or two of delay as they look into the obvious things first and try to confirm the other data. But to wait so long and ignore so much is well beyond what ought to have happened.

Edit: especially in the 9/11-paranoid US and other similarly fearful countries, the plane would have been noticed on military radar in real time and would have been intercepted right away, and this whole question of who knew what when and how long it's reasonable to search in the wrong place would have been avoided because the fighter pilots would have watched the thing sail off with their own eyes.

Maybe the military of several countries are not sharing their data in a timely manner because it's embarrassing for them to reveal that they were sleeping on the job, there is no actual intercept plan, and that the millions/billions spent on air defense is a complete waste of money.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2583553/Thai-militar...

"Has there been a military cover-up over missing jet? Thai air force says its radar spotted MH370 heading to Strait of Malacca minutes after it vanished (but didn't say anything)... MH370 spotted at 1.28am, eight minutes after it stopped communicating. Turned towards Butterworth, a Malaysian city along the Strait of Malacca... Thai air force did not report contact because 'it did not look like a threat'"

If I am not mistaken, the 9/11 commission report revealed that civilian and military radar systems and processes were not linked, thereby resulting in confusion as to what was happening. Although lessons should have been learnt, I suspect this problem still exists in many countries, and this is what we are witnessing right now.

That certainly seems extremely likely to me. Asleep at the switch, subsequently partially at fault for the disappearance of a couple hundred people, and a reluctance to come forward will be the expected result....

Reply on news.ycombinator.com