The hotness factor is only based on the outcome of the ongoing game. It should also consider the live impact on classification/awards.

Have a look at yesterday's CL game between Paris & Leverkusen : http://www.gambletron2000.com/events/2276/paris-st-g-v-lever..., which was the second of a 2-legs opposition, Paris having won 4-0 on the first one. Which means 99.9% chances of qualifying It has a _mildly hot_ 762 score, where it should have been between 0 and 10. As the game was almost meaningless, the fact that Leverkusen scored first before finally losing the game didn't bring any excitation.