He computes "hotness" for soccer (football, to me) matches too: http://www.gambletron2000.com/?sport=epl%2Cchampions
As you'd imagine, each goal brings about a massive spike in implied win/loss probability.
As you'd imagine, each goal brings about a massive spike in implied win/loss probability.
PS: Football in Argentina as well :)
Have a look at yesterday's CL game between Paris & Leverkusen : http://www.gambletron2000.com/events/2276/paris-st-g-v-lever..., which was the second of a 2-legs opposition, Paris having won 4-0 on the first one. Which means 99.9% chances of qualifying It has a _mildly hot_ 762 score, where it should have been between 0 and 10. As the game was almost meaningless, the fact that Leverkusen scored first before finally losing the game didn't bring any excitation.
Tl;dr - the method is really interesting, but imperfect because it's not a pure market, I think. Bet fair odds or similar would be interesting, but their API is horrendous.