Why should moderate disclosure be a lose-lose situation? If Google has a problem with entering a country that is dependent on the country's laws or policies, explaining the problem to the local citizens could lead to public discourse about the laws and, eventually, change.
Zero disclosure is a winning strategy only because people will use their imaginations and think there are valid reasons for the progress being so slow. The people will argue that the reason Google is not telling us is the policy and not the fact that they don't have a good reason.
---
This discussion reminds me of the famous quote from Eric Schmidt:
"If you have something that you don't want anyone to know, maybe you shouldn't be doing it in the first place."
Does that rule apply to Google disclosures as well?