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I think that the benefits of price (free) and availability (theater comes to you) are only likely to increase movies watched via YouTube. Once a movie does have 165M page views in an opening weekend (and one will), which will be a better measure of movie performance: the box office or Google?

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That depends on the movie, harry potter pulled in 139.7M over its Wednesday-to-Sunday debut period. I don't see free with advertising adding enough people to make close to that much money.

However, a movie like clerks could be vary profitable online.

The best measure will always be revenue. Can YouTube generate better revenue for film producers than movie theaters? Not even television in its heyday could do that.

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