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Comment by motters | Hacker News Reader

At least within the area of the UK which I lived in until recently the idea that there are lots of unadvertised jobs is a myth. When I was unemployed I did the experiment of applying both via "the usual channels" and also speculatively based upon fairly elaborate analysis to try to identify suitable organisations. The number of "conversions" - which means inquiries turning into job interviews - was vastly higher for the usual channels, with very few companies responding to speculative inquiries.

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What makes you think your methodology was a good one for finding the unadvertised jobs ?

Plenty of unadvertised jobs will go through networks, word-of-mouth and personal recommendation - obviously cold-calling wouldn't give you good results in such cases.

Generally it's estimated that roughly 40% [for 2009-2010] of jobs are unadvertised, and that's calculated using US BLS data (http://www.bls.gov/news.release/jolts.htm) comparing number of job openings companies state they have versus actual hiring numbers.

While there might be variation between countries, I doubt that there's significant difference between the UK and the US.

I think my methods were good. They were based on data mining company information for all companies registered with Companies House, such as changes in numbers of employees, net worth, main products and the like. I tried to apply scientific method to the task of finding employment.

If the unadvertised jobs cannot be detected by any empirical evidence then I would suggest that they be treated like other mythological phenomenon.

Did you miss my link to the BLS data showing the difference between hiring number and job openings ?

There's plenty of empirical ways to show that unadvertised hiring occurs. Another alternative way would be simply to survey companies and employees and ask them.

The fact that unadvertised recruitment happens doesn't mean that the jobs will be available to anyone who attempts to apply via cold-calling.

A company that receives a strong recommendation for a candidate via someone they trust may well create a new role especially for that person, but obviously such a role wouldn't exist if someone unknown tried to apply speculatively.

Where did you obtain data about 'changes in numbers of employees' for 'all companies registered with Companies House'?

I'm genuinely curious about where to access that data, because AFAIK employee data doesn't exist in either of the regular statutory filings collected by Companies House (the Annual Return (AR01) and the annual accounts).

HMRC _does_ have that data (as it's included in the P35 Employer Annual Return) but I'm not aware of any way to access it.

Similarly, the best data I've seen on 'main products' for _all_ UK companies is the SIC code, which isn't particularly specific.

I'd appreciate any pointers to accessing the data you described (changes in # of employee; main products) for all UK-registered companies.

You misunderstand how "unadvertised jobs" work. They are "sold" through word of mouth. Unless you're within the employer's personal network - and your message does not indicate it - you'd never find out. Your speculative inquiry would not get a response because they don't know you, and they prefer to give the job to someone who comes with a referral.

Obviously, companies advertising a job are more likely to have a job; this does not nearly imply the converse (that a majority of jobs are advertised).

Your experience might also reflect the type of job you were looking for. For a job with a large pool of potentially compatible employees that advertising gave me easy access to, it would be prudent to advertise.

Finally, I could offer anecdotal data in the opposite direction.

I have done the same and come to the same conclusion.

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