In summary I would recommend you don't worry about being right from the start. Spend a little time (like you are with this HN post) to find out enough to pick at least two very different quick routes for developing at least two very different simple apps. Then come back to HN to discuss your experience and at that point you have a decent chance of picking a right path.
Some further food for thought:
> I know you need to know Java to do Android
There are several languages and tools that codegen to the JVM, and more specifically, Dalvik, the special version of the JVM used for Android, so you don't have to learn Java per se.
For example, there's Clojure, a flavor of lisp that targets the JVM and supports Android/Dalvik.
> My goal is to develop mobile apps, starting with Android.
There's already at least one non-Java language/tool I know of that not only codegens to Android but also iOS and other platforms. So you can write code once and just push a button to have it run on Android, push another and it runs on iOS. I'm not going to mention the language/tool because it's controversial (eg it's not open source), but I'd be surprised if there aren't open source equivalents either already in existence or set to arrive soonish.
> My background is only perl/bash/SQL - just scripting.
The "Are We There Yet?" Perl 6 codegens to multiple platforms including the JVM. Unfortunately a key piece of their current codegen strategy doesn't work with Dalvik so I'd say Android's probably out for Perl 6 for at least a year or ten.