You bring up the Monty Hall problem. The options there are:
[ c ] [ g ] [ g ]
[ g ] [ c ] [ g ]
[ g ] [ g ] [ c ]
These are all equally likely.Then you choose a door. Let's assume you choose door 1. To keep things equally likely, let's suppose Monty flips a coin. Heads he opens the left-most unchosen door that doesn't reveal a car, Tails he opens the right-most. Now we have six options:
Heads:
[ c ] [ g*] [ g ]
[ g ] [ c ] [ g*]
[ g ] [ g*] [ c ]
Tails:
[ c ] [ g ] [ g*]
[ g ] [ c ] [ g*]
[ g ] [ g*] [ c ]
As you can see, there are now 6 equi-probable choices, and in 4 of them it's better to switch.A: So now let's take another experiment. I tell you I'm going to flip two coins until at least one of them is heads. I do that. Now I ask you to bet on whether or not there is a tail. What do you think are fair odds?
B: Now I hunt among couples with two children until I find one that doesn't have two girls, and I ask: what are the odds they have two boys?
C: Finally, I hunt among couples with two children until I find one that has at least one boy, and I ask: what are the odds they have two boys?
This last is how the question is usually interpreted.
There are three options.
1: Your answers to A, B, and C are not all the same;
2: They are all the same, and not 1/3;
3: They are all the same, and all 1/3.
If your answers to A, B and C are not all the same, I'd like to know why. If they are not all 1/3, I'd like to play game A with you. If your answer to C is 1/3, then you've agreed with the usually interpretation and contradicted yourself.