I've talked to many friends who are generally delighted about their mobile phones, and they have minimal interest in smart watches that cost close to a mobile phone.
I suppose a category disruptor like the iPad could emerge, but I'm not holding my breath. I think we're getting device fatigue.
(On the other hand, Google Glass and related devices are a bit different, and may have more applications)
But yeah, anything like the Pebble is probably a dead end; in five years or so, Glass will have replaced all its functionality and much more for anyone who already wears eyeglasses.
Agreed that any knockoff/clone of a Pebble is a dead end. The Pebble is a great annoyance device. It's fun when I'm working at my computer to see what order an iMessage from my Wife comes in on. Is it going to be my iPhone, then Pebble and then my Mac, or the Mac, Pebble then iPhone? It's a fun game, if you like receiving the same alert on 3 devices within a couple seconds of each other. Any new product that is any old product with a screen and connecting to the internet or another device over BTLE is going to be 2014's "It's X, but social!" from a couple years ago. This includes Glass, since it does absolutely nothing more than create an extension of your portable notification device's screen projected up to your eye. It's quite literally "Eyeglasses, but with a screen connected to the internet!". It doesn't make people more connected, it makes the wearer disconnected from the world.
But the smart watch thing seems to be a dead end - too small a screen to compete with a smartphone (which 'everybody' has now), too bulky and 'uncool' to compete with a basic watch (telling the time) or fashion/jewelry watch (pretty accessory).
Of course that was what people said about iPads - why would you want that if you have a laptop and smartphone ... so maybe I'm completely wrong.
Absent some repopularizing event, a category for which "Apple and Google would really like to sell a lot of smart watches" fails to qualify, I see no reason to imagine the trend spontaneously reversing itself.
The point, in any case, is that there's nothing intrinsically special about wearing a chronometer, or any other information display, on one's wrist, such that "smart watches" are necessarily a qualitative improvement over, for example, "smart phones".
It's truly the smallest of speedups to get over the pettiest of inconveniences, but for something I do constantly, having a watch is awesome. Even though the current crop of smart watches don't interest me, I could see myself getting a watch that makes other common tasks easier if it came at a reasonable price.