then the other risk here is liquidity. how deep is BTC liquidity so that prices are not affected by businesses instantly exchanging to USD, EUR, etc.?
That alone is currently a significant volume to liquidate. Enough to move the price 4-5% on some exchanges. Bitpay only takes a ~1% fee, but I assume their exchange rate is padded to absorb some of that risk. They may also sell bitcoin off the exchanges, which doesn't have a direct impact on the price.