Snapchat has achieved the kind of user acceptance that only a handful of tech companies ever do. Kudos to them. However, it is a feature, not a product. The next great thing will come along and claim its notoriously fickle user base as fast or faster than Snapchat itself arrived on the scene. The barriers to entry are so low as to effectively be nonexistent.

Evan grew up rich and has family money to fall back on if he fails, so perhaps he can afford to gamble for a bigger payday. The problem is that he is gambling with the financial futures of his investors and employees as well. In my opinion, a bet that Snapchat will ever be valued at more than $3 billion is a long shot, and there is a greater-than-zero chance that the company will be worth nothing two years from now.