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Comment by mrb | Hacker News Reader

If you compare Tulip Mania to the world's first decentralized, censorship-resistant, inflation-resistant, digital currency, then you don't understand Bitcoin. At all.

Combine this with absolutely zero efforts to estimate the worth of the Bitcoin system, how Bitcoin is used today, etc. That's the difference between being published at Techcrunch and more prestigious publications like http://www.nytimes.com/2013/10/31/technology/bitcoin-pursues... or http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-switch/wp/2013/11/08...

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If in, say, 5 years, you turn out to be hilariously wrong, will you eat your bitcoins?

I expect bitcoin to crash and burn at some point. But that is because I think bitcoin has flaws that make it likely to be replaced by future crypto-currencies, or possibly something weirder. Until those currencies exist and gain traction however, bitcoin is going to get bigger. A lot bigger. I don't think this is even that stupid a time to buy, I strongly suspect that there is at least another 10x growth still there, a $10,000 bitcoin price within 3 years would not shock me at all.

Let me clarify my position: the utility of decentralized digital currencies on society is so enormous that it is inevitable that they will succeed. Decentralized digital financial transactions are an invention as big as the Internet.

Is it Bitcoin that will succeed, or some other cryptocurrency? I don't know, but it has a good shot at it because it has the first-mover advantage and benefits from network effect.

By the same utility argument there should be no nuclear weapons, an all out push for zero emissions energy, and world peace, but don't hold your breath. There are existing, very powerful stakeholders such as the governments and militaries of numerous world powers who would far prefer that financial transactions not be anonymous. Tech folk sometimes forget that their bodies live in meat space, not cyberspace, and whoever controls the guys with weapons (i.e., controls police and armies) controls meat space.

The difference being of course: nobody has a clue on how to achieve no nuclear weapons, 100% zero emmission energy, world peace, etc. So you might wish it, but it just not going to happen right now.

But Bitcoin is a known solution demonstrating how to implement a decentralized digital currency. It is working. Today. So the utility it has, and the impact it is about to make on society is enormous.

The fact that most people don't get it is one of the most exciting things about it. I like reading negative articles more than positive ones.

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