I give it less than 10 days until the crash.
BTW, I correctly predicted the April crash 2 days in advance.
Past performance is not an indicator of future results
> I didn't say the soon-to-come crash would be the end of Bitcoin
You said "I give it less than 10 days until the crash" which sounds rather dismissive. I think you should work on your communication.
Well, that says really all there needs to be said.
> It doesn't take much to say "the price will go down a bit some time in the next 10 days".
OK, let me be more precise: "the price will go down to less than half its peak."
I bet 0.00125 BTC that the lowest price as reported at http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/bitstampUSD won't fall below $321 USD until after Nov 29.
To clarify, I will pay out under the following circumstances:
You reply agreeing before this reply is "12 hours ago"
I accept your reply
On 2013-11-30:
Load http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/bitstampUSD
Tick "custom time"
Set start date as 2013-11-18
Set end date as 2013-11-29
If the "Lo" price is less than 321, I will pay.
Otherwise you owe me 0.00125 BTC
Deal?
This will be interesting :)
Bitstamp traditionally has lower prices than MtGox, so that's in your favour.
My terms are such that if any trade happens below $321, you win - not just daily average or what have you.
I find it amusing that the payout would be skewed in your favor by the nature of the bet.
Well, cheers anyway. Maybe I'll buy something in 10 days with the bitcoin I would have paid you ;)
> the payout would be skewed in your favor by the nature of the bet.
Yes, if I'd won, the amount would be worth more in dollars than if I lost. But if you're sincerely predicting a crash, you don't believe I'd have won.
So he literally gets his money back.
I think you should make the bet in dollars.