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Comment by david927 | Hacker News Reader

Remember your Clay Christensen: The late majority follow the early adopters. In this case, this means where the teenagers move to, that is where the parents will eventually go. The writing has been on the wall for this for a few years now -- FB doesn't stand a chance to last out the decade.

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Teenagers as a group are not trendsetters for other age groups, for example when did you ever see a Justin Bieber hairdo on anyone over the age of 17?

They are time rich and money poor, a situation that reverses as you get older. They live geographically close to most of their friends. This is mostly not true for adults, who tend to be time poor, wealthier than teenagers, and geographically separated from their friends. Because of this, looking to teenagers to understand what most people want from their social media does not seem like a particularly good idea to me.

"when did you ever see a Justin Bieber hairdo on anyone over the age of 17?"

Give it a few years...

"In this case" because remember -- they were the ones that started the migration to FB; in this case, they were exactly "the trendsetters for other age groups" and so if they move, your early adopters are moving and the late majority will follow.

Additionally, non-facebook users will find that when they go to college, they won't know when any of the parties are (and they won't know about any of the study groups). If you're a person that has that typical human need to belong, university almost forces you to log into facebook.

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