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"To borrow your analogy of the can of worms module, that it runs well but will become a bomb as soon as someone decides to rewire it fills me with a sense of deep dread. My mind immediately drifts to the scenario where something forces changes on that module, such as the server continuously crashing due to a latent schrodinbug that just surfaced, but in a time-frame where those 47 issues just can't be resolved. I've never been comfortable with the justification that "it works now, so just don't screw with it." It seems to just be begging for Murphy to make a fool of the person justifying a decision thusly."

Yes, so you make that part of the decision. It's all contextual; you can fiddle with this hypothetical this way to make it 'yes', you can fiddle with it the other way to make it 'no', and both hypotheticals will be simplified to the point of irrelevance compared to any real situation that may arise.

I don't know if it's so much intuition as it is luck (or, heh, being unlucky). I seem to have an uncanny knack for spotchecking one thing, and while I'm doing that, uncovering a bunch of other problems because something in the things I've chosen to spot check has an association with something that looks wrong. Like, I'll spot check a database update, and I'll display all columns even though I am only looking at one or two. It just so happens that in the rows I chose to check, another field is obviously not being validated right.

I've also experienced some weird premonitions, like I'll suggest a change be made, based on some trend I may be seeing but can't articulate, and then a few days later the very thing I suggest should be changed needs to be changed, usually under time pressure.

I wish I could bottle and sell this, but I'm sure it's closer to being unlucky than having a superpower (like Rob McKenna from HHGTTG), and no one would want it.

When I said "experience", I was trying to differentiate between a capable person who hadn't done much with one who had been around the block a few times. It's usually easier for the second person to avoid pitfalls and use all of their resources to make a good decision.

Adding experience to a person who is not smart or capable, stubborn, lazy, or has other personality "issues" is generally a waste of time and resources. Looks like you've met a few of these people. Most of us have.