Equity analyst here. The people following those companies don't know dick either. And the CFA doesn't give you ANY credentials (certainly not just level I) regarding business strategy. Stop listening to people based on titles and credentials and start evaluating (and critiquing) their arguments.

My opinion? Microsoft is expanding revenue but losing it's core business slowly. I think they'll look pretty good for the next couple of years until viable competitors to Office come along. All these other sources of revenue are contingent upon their traction in enterprise, something that's unlikely to change in the short or medium term but when it does will very unpleasant for them.