This is a confusing situation. When I call D.C. they say an impasse blowing through 17 October is likely. When I call my rates and bond dealers on Wall Street I'm told that it shouldn't be too unsettling. The truth is likely in the middle.

Past 17 October the U.S. Treasury can prioritise payments, i.e. make interest and perhaps Social Security payments while blocking others. This makes the U.S. plunging back into a recession probable. It also virtually assures Federal Reserve (The Fed) intervention.

Some time before 1 November all bets are off. There are big payments due that will force the Treasury to be creative (e.g. minting a $1 trillion coin, issuing original-issue-premium debt, or blatantly ignoring the debt limit) or default. The Fed could open swap lines with the banks in an attempt to de-couple the U.S. financial system from its political system. The odds of success are low.

An unknown number of pieces, with uncertain capabilities on a shifting board, collectively daring or being dared to test new limits. This is an interesting situation.