It's really, really, really small, with millions of successful flights done without problems. Yet accidents like those have happened, and have been prevented after that rule was put in place.
I was using mathematical proofs as an example of why in IT security, often times since you can't be sure, you do the proactive thing and don't run services exposed to the internet. If you have a database with credit card numbers, you don't let the DB listen for connections on a public IP, not because you think there is a security hole in the DB, but because you can't be sure there isn't.