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Comment by sambeau | Hacker News Reader

The stock pretty much always falls after Apple announce something. I assume the reasons are complex — anything new is a risk, anything old is a lower-margin version.

Historically, you cannot make any accurate predictions of Apple's success or failure based on The Market's reaction to a keynote.

That leaves the other point: "Meh". Yes, I'm sure everyone wants Apple to announce something groundbreaking and industry defining. I'm sure Apple do too.

Maybe they will again or maybe they won't. Either way I'm sure Tim Cook has a better idea of how to do it than the bloggersphere.

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Apple stock has been up 4/7 times the day after the announcement of an iPhone.

What are the numbers when counting non-iPhone announcements? Apple's stock dropping after a keynote isn't uncommon.

Using the stock market as a judge is tricky. I agree that the price of AAPL is a poor indicator of how their products will perform in the market is folly. However, Steve Ballmer not moving MSFT in ten years really was a problem.

It is not unprecedented for Apple to release what appears to be an incremental revision of a product (or even a "worse" one) to great commercial success, and that is probably what will happen with the 5C. This tends to happen when the product in question is not "for" the pundit class, who in their write-ups see the product's value proposition differently than the people who end up buying it in droves. To put it diplomatically.

I guess what I'm saying is, if you've been around long enough, you have seen many people portend Apple's doom. Sometimes they even have arguments that make a lot of sense, which is nice. But you learn to ignore it, because none of it has come true so far.

With the right marketing, the C in 5C doesn't stand for cheap. Most likely, only tech nerds will make that comparison. Regular consumers will probably focus on the fun colors instead. I wouldn't be surprised if Apple spend more money marketing the 5C than the 5S to train consumers to think that way. They did that successfully with the Shuffle –no screen!!! It's safe to assume they'll be as successful with the 5C.

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