"I think things will become much much worse for Microsoft before they get better. I'm afraid they will lose small and medium size enterprises and ISVs because their licensing structure has become so complex, overpriced and antiquated that a new generation of customers will refuse to deal with them."

They have cranked prices up, killed TechNet and other stupid things to try push the medium sized clients to Azure. Licenses cost are killing some of our smaller clients to the point they are asking us to find alternatives to Microsoft even if it is a SaaS that isn't Azure. When clients start talking about OSS alternatives instead of Microsoft, you can be damn sure Redmond has "jumped the shark" in their eyes. And even with BizSpark, you are fucked if you are an independent developer.