I think things will become much much worse for Microsoft before they get better. I'm afraid they will lose small and medium size enterprises and ISVs because their licensing structure has become so complex, overpriced and antiquated that a new generation of customers will refuse to deal with them.

In the past there was piracy as a way to lower the barriers to entry. Today, piracy has become dangerous for small companies in developed countries. All of a sudden SMEs and ISVs are confronted with scores of product feature matrices, weird dependencies and restrictions, kafkaesque partnership programs and long-term committments.

Sometimes they are just plain stupid. For instance, I recently came across this page that explains developer account types: http://msdn.microsoft.com/library/windows/apps/jj863494.aspx

It seems harmless if convoluted at first sight. But look at the dependencies they have created. In order to sell Windows desktop apps in the Windows store and use all device capabilities you need a company account, and to get a company account you need to be recognized as a company in your own country.

That's effectively a wholesale import of tax, social security and incorporation laws of countless countries into Microsoft's own terms of service. Microsoft operates in many countries so they have to know how onerous this rule can be. They are erecting a huge barrier to entry for individual software developers and early stage startups around the world.

I'm sure they will claim it's for their users' safety. But this must be the most uncreative, idiotic safety measure ever invented, particularly if you know how easy it is for real criminals to game this system.

Now, I'm not saying that developer relations is Microsoft's most serious problem. Not at all. But it goes to show how incapable this company is of putting themselves into the shoes of those who have to deal with them in any capacity.