I had a professor give an epic lecture about this several years ago, but this is the best I could find on short notice [1].
As it turns out, there is a real source of frequency dependence in your path loss, which is the atmosphere. Your link budget calculation is really just an annoying geometry problem. Conservation of energy still holds, so you should be immediately suspicious when the naively applied Friis equation (which does not take atmospheric effects into account) makes received energy vanish just because you cranked up the frequency. Just as you should be suspicious when you receive more energy than you transmit when you're in the antenna's near field. Always know what your approximations imply.
The receivers are actually a bit more sensitive than that (the TI chip is ~-120 dBm at the target frequency; the whole package could be close to -114 dBm if designed well).
The claim I made was that you can't get half a km on 16 milliwatts. I cited 16 milliwatts because it's the max transmit power of the TI chip alone. You cannot make this go half a km with the antennas shown on the kickstarter page. You'd either need more power, or one of the antennas would need to be a dish. Even in an unreasonably quiet environment, you'd run out of energy at the receiver way before running into frequency or bitrate dependent effects.
But it turns out that 16 milliwatts is not the output power used. TI makes an amplifier that increases the output power to half a watt. In this case you'll easily get the half-km range.
[1]: http://www.dslreports.com/forum/r24210307-Reconciling-the-Fr...