I give up. Apparently no speculation is out of bounds any more. If someone says it's all due to Nazi reptoids, I'm going to give them the benefit of the doubt.
What I've realized is that the things I thought were paranoid and came true are things that I thought were paranoid because I had "trust" in various organizations not to abuse power, not because the actions seemed out right implausible.
With the backpacks and pressure cookers story, I was skeptical not because I trusted the fbi, but because it seemed implausible given the way the fbi typically acts and strongly against their interests.
So my updated rule is that 'trust' is no longer a valid reason to rule something out as paranoid. This is an ethos that the security world has long held as obvious, that many technical people formerly not particularly interested in security are waking up to.
-John Adams
Also, because they're smart people who understand the danger of revealing their programs to too many people.
Maybe I misjudge how many favors bureaucracies are willing to do for one another.
Or perhaps the higher-ups in the NSA are true believers in the drug war. I guess I'm not and I assume people in the NSA wouldn't be either.
That said, I think I've made it abundantly clear that nobody should listen to my speculations.