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Comment by icpmacdo | Hacker News Reader

This is proving a point that a lot of pro legalization people have been saying for years.

I've long felt this way as well, but increasingly I'm becoming convinced that the narcos would just refocus on coke, meth, heroin, slavery, etc. It's not as if startups are the only entities that can 'pivot'...

That is my understanding of what happened after the repeal of alcohol prohibition in the USA. The original prohibition created a significant amount of criminal infrastructure and faced with alcohol no longer being insanely profitable they switched to a variety of other enterprises, like hard drugs, prostitution, etc.

I recall one article put most of the blame for the rise of organized crime in the US on Prohibition and that it wasn't really the dedicated work of the FBI that stamped out the mafia in the US, it was the aging and eventual death of the entire generation that had risen to wealth and power during those times.

It looks live we've really set ourselves up for long-term pain with the drug war, even with total de-criminilization like Portugal has done, it will probably be at least another generation before the worst effects of the criminal organizations fade away. By which time enough people will have forgotten the price of the drug war and be gung ho to start some new socially-destructive campaign.

So far, decriminalization only happened on small countries that are mainly consumers, not producers. In this aspect, de-criminalization is more a commercial policy (fostering a regulated local industry vs. "importing") than a social one, since it doesn't fix the social injustices that allow traffic to happen in the first place, just deflects it.

It's similar to how all manufacturing happens in China because it's a way for countries to export their social issues and environmental impact to another country that is willing to take it.

Suppose that was true, then why wouldn't they just pivot now and make more money?

If you think they would make less money under the new scheme then that would be a good thing because it would lower the benefit of doing the crime and thus fewer people would risk being involved.

And honestly there isn't really a market for slaves (at least in the US), so the organizations would mostly collapse, with the remnants smuggling counterfeit goods, which is an outcome I would be okay with.

Decriminalizing all mainstream drugs (PCP, etc. probably don't matter since there is limited demand, but anything where there's enough demand should be decriminalized, and you may as well do everything) would reduce profits for the narcos, which would make them less potent. They'd probably switch to cigarettes and counterfeit goods and other tax or regulation evasion operations, but those are much less profitable.

Then legalize those as well... Treat addiction. Educate and inform instead of scaring and prohibiting. Instead of the boogey man and crapping bricks of money to build more jails, paying lawyers and DEA, provide safe guidance in drug use.

Pay for the the treatment industry and you will get recovering addicts and fewer cartels.

Pay for the punishment industry and you will get criminals and cartels.

"in your choices lies your talent..."

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