Anyway: The New York Times should've worked harder to keep him. They should fire Tom Friedman and Maureen Dowd and put those resources into the kind of analysis Nate Silver espoused. Y'know, the "actual journalism" kind.
Anyway: The New York Times should've worked harder to keep him. They should fire Tom Friedman and Maureen Dowd and put those resources into the kind of analysis Nate Silver espoused. Y'know, the "actual journalism" kind.
How did he do that?
If anything, I would argue the opposite, because his model is proprietary and his explanations (presumably deliberately) vague. 538 is awash with numbers but the algorithms used to generate them are the very definition of "eye-of-newt and other secret ingredients".
Silver basically said "here are the exact probabilities we have calculated for these races and here is the gist of our methodology [1]". If that doesn't cut through the rhetoric, opinion, and 'expert analysis' that plagues MSM political coverage, I don't know what else possibly could.
I agree. I much prefer the (simpler) work of Sam Wang from the Princeton Election Consortium (http://election.princeton.edu/) who did release MATLAB code of his work and his data sources so you could do it yourself. Somehow, Nate Silver got all the media attention though.
Yes, somehow the young, geekily attractive popular sports author, whose blog on an extremely popular alternative news site grew a significant cult following, got all the mainstream media attention. It is extremely surprising that said media attention did not go to the duo of crusty, obscure, highfalutin Ivy-league academics instead.
Somehow, that happened. How, we'll never know.
Now that MSM has seen what's possible when logic and statistical analysis is applied to journalism, I'd imagine they'll be able to find a team to reproduce or at least mimic what Silver did in 2012.
And get better results in the process.
Their offer to him was already grating to many others at the Times, I imagine. They offered him quite the little staff, and expansion into any topic he wanted.
I don't think his decision to leave was about their offer, that, or ESPN/ABC just dreamed bigger and gave him a bigger offer.
Either way, I'm psyched to see that he's getting brand separation and returning to his website along with a staff and the ability to write about whatever he wants.
Actually Krugman is also a poor fit. I wish he'd walk away and just keep doing what he does independently. At least then I wouldn't have to go into privacy mode to read his articles.
Read this NiemanLab article from 2010. It was always clear (to me at least and a few others) that the NYT thing was just a step along the way (partnership vs acquisition - 3 yr contract, etc):
http://www.niemanlab.org/2010/06/articles-of-incorporation-n...
Or, he could sign up with ESPN/Disney, and do sports on ESPN, politics on ABC, and so on.
He'll have a much broader level of impact at ESPN/ABC. I suspect NY Times just couldn't match that.