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Comment by cstross | Hacker News Reader

I thought it unlikely he'd fly via Cuba: the great circle route from Moscow flies much too close to US or Canadian airspace for my comfort, if I knew there was an Espionage Act warrant out for my arrest and the establishment wanted to make an example of me. ("Diversion due to technical issues" and an unscheduled stop at Gander in Newfoundland would totally ruin my day, even short of an intercept and diversion by F-15s over the Caribbean.)

Just guessing here, but the real route (if Ecuador is in fact his destination) may be something like bizjet to Iceland, refuel, continue to somewhere in North Africa, refuel, then over the south Atlantic. And that's assuming he was ever in Moscow in the first place.

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It actually overflies the US mainland today:

http://flightaware.com/live/flight/AFL150

But on other days it goes nowhere near it:

http://flightaware.com/live/flight/AFL150/history/20130620/1...

You make that sound like conspiracy but if you do a fair comparison, i.e. compare to the flight exactly 1 week previous, it takes the same route.

>You make that sound like conspiracy

I didn't get that impression at all. If that post wasn't "Just the facts, ma'am", what is?

He didn't say all other days, after all.

I apologize, I thought it was implicit this is just about wind patterns.

I don't know about international laws regarding flights passing other countries airspace. But if the US would force down a Russian civilian airplane, to perform an arrest after the request to perform this arrest on Russian soil was denied, I guess that would cause some major diplomatic trouble between the US and Russia. I doubt it would be solved by summoning the ambassador.

But he technically did not enter Russian soil right? He was in transit and did not step foot outside of the terminal building.

I think you'd find the international security area at the airport is still sovereign soil; the country just, for obvious practical reasons, doesn't insist on people going through immigration and customs in order to transit through.

Without being too confident, I think he is in Moscow, given all the evidence save for the fact that no third source has actually seen him there.

It makes great sense he did not take the flight to Cuba he was expected to go on; I think he will take a flight suddenly and unexpected and to a country we did not consider. To avoid any presence of other nationals[0] and journalists on the flight.

This will his plan all the way to his final destination. He might even at times move through means we did not consider (e.g. by train or car; under diplomatic protection, of course).

[0] In particularly American officials.

Could it be possible that he requested asylum in Ecuador after in arriving in Moscow because he is trying to get them to transport him from Russia to Ecuador privately?

Possibly. It has been stated numerous times that he has advisers from Wikileaks on the plane, and they may have suggested this solution. I am confident that they also suggested him not to take the flight he was scheduled for.

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