I do think you're ignoring the market reality. Before elop, Nokia had a 12-15% global market share and windows had 3. As a consequence of the migration away from Symbian (the infamous burning platform memo) Nokia went from 12-15% to 3.2% in very short order, like 2 years. The lift to Windows phone? .4% market share.

In short, Nokia burning 10-12% market share to boost Windows by .4%. It's one of the worst business case studies ever: how to kill a manufacturer.

There's no way Nokia would be at 3% market share if they'd gone after the future OS after Symbian. There's no way Nokia would be at 3% if they went with Android. All of the mobile OS geeks knew Windows was doomed because in the 10+ years they've been releasing Mobile OS systems, every single one has been pure crap. Why would WindowsP8 be different?

Seriously, Nokia was a sacrificial lamb on the altar of Baller with Elop as high-priest.