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Comment by monkeypizza | Hacker News Reader

This is what's happening in China now. They've had the great firewall for 10 years - what's happening since then has been further development of ways to manage what people think. So they allow weibo, etc. to work, and are figuring out how to control the message.

By controlling a few birds at the right moment, you can control where the whole flock goes, and it still thinks it's free.

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Sounds very Illuminati to me. (Oh yeah. I went there.)

I don't think it's that easy, though. China seems, at least to me, as a very divided nation. They can't keep it up forever, I mean - something's gotta give at some point.

It "gives" quite frequently, and between the size of the system, and some policies therein, it can absorb a significant amount of "give". There are actually hundreds of protests each day. State media control is of course the largest reason you don't hear about them often, but far from the only factor.

When discussing China from a Western perspective, and not simply using "culture and history" as a catch-all/cop-out for differences, I would say two points need to be kept closely in mind: Scale and Paranoia.

No Western country operates at "China Scale". Entire societal functions operate less efficiently, or break down entirely, when you reach a certain size. You often hear bewildered statements, wondering "Why China does X instead of Y?", where X is an unsustainable notion for them. Sort of like how on HN we talk about "Facebook Scale" or "Twitter Scale" to emphasize sets of problems that most other companies don't have, and likely never will.

But size lends something else: Momentum. Things will continue forward tomorrow in a manner similar to today, if only because it would take a huge exertion of effort to change it. And in this case, 500 protests per day with a few dozen people each is not a huge exertion of effort relative to the population.

As for paranoia, I'm sure some of China's leaders agree with your "They can't keep it up forever" statement (at a national level--local is a different matter). They worry about this regularly and it colors much of what they do. Does a US Senator wake up in the morning and ask themselves "Is today the day that everyone decides democracy is a terrible idea? Is today the day it all crashes down?" Of course not. But many of China's leaders worry for their system.

Of course that paranoia is probably of a different flavor now than 20 years ago. China's economic success and continued upward trajectory has to help some leaders sleep easier at night.

As for the Illuminati: Please don't go there. It never helps.

Oh, I didn't mean to go all conspiracy theorist on you. The previous comment just sounded a lot like it.

I think China will be okay, as long as their economy doesn't collapse under its own weight.

I can't think of an instance of an economy "collapsing under its own weight." China might run into issues with currency manipulation, but aside from that they will be most stable so long as they keep growing at a fast clip. The problems will start to appear when growth slows or stalls, and people no longer see their lives or children's lives getting better (e.g. the Arab Spring)

There's the signs of an early housing crisis (i.e lots of apartments being built, but nobody's buying). Entires cities stands empty, without occupation. That seems a bit like an economy that's heaving trouble maintaining itself.

Ah so you're saying the government pumping up economic growth artificially won't be able to continue indefinitely. I'd agree: organic economic growth can't cause economic collapse (unless there are serious infrastructure issues) but artificial growth certainly can.

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