I think that depends on how good the new kinect is which comes bundled. The hardware is near identical. The used games issue and 24-hour checkins probably won't be a deal breaker for level headed people so I'd say this is still up in the air.
More expensive, less powerful, Comes with anti-consumer restrictions
It's a no-brainer.
Did you type that with a straight face?
Because they want to play the games that are only available on it. Or they want to play games with their friends on xbox live. Those can be very powerful motivators, games and friends aren't commodities.
I certainly hope this happens. I for one, hate platform exclusive games - it means vendor lock in, and it is anti-consumer.