A competing theory is that he is actually spying for the PRC. Hong Kong would be an obvious choice for a wealthy, Western spy seeking Chinese protection. They're semi-autonomous, but military affairs are run by the PRC, and in particular the PRC has control over foreign extradition:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2013/jun/09/edward-snowden-h...
If this wasn't a priori the best theory, surely the HK part adds some Bayesian weight.