Hacker News Reader

Comment by untog | Hacker News Reader

Slightly off-topic question, but why did he not just go to Iceland in the first place? Hong Kong does not seem like the best destination here.

View on HN

A competing theory is that he is actually spying for the PRC. Hong Kong would be an obvious choice for a wealthy, Western spy seeking Chinese protection. They're semi-autonomous, but military affairs are run by the PRC, and in particular the PRC has control over foreign extradition:

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2013/jun/09/edward-snowden-h...

If this wasn't a priori the best theory, surely the HK part adds some Bayesian weight.

Do you have more information about this theory? The discussion has been so one-sided, I feel obligated to seek other interpretations.

I don't think there is any more information about it because circumstantial evidence is the only connection.

Not to say that it isn't true, but at this point a whole wide range of things could be.

I just mean more discussion.

I haven't found any interesting information. Apparently this theory is being speculated on CNN (as I said, neither interesting, nor information...)

http://www.mediaite.com/tv/former-cia-officer-officials-cons...

Sounds like the smear campaign begins early this time... Where's the evidence?

That sounds more like a smear campaing, although I kinda want it to just be a chinese propaganda coup against the US.

China is also not afraid of the US. That does help a bit. If he was working for the PRC. His safest bet would be China.

Next would probably be the middle east or Korea.

You forgot the Bayseian weight of negative one million, for revealing his identity and what he's been doing to the international press.

It says here that he was on leave from his NSA job for treatment for his epilepsy (well, that's what he told the NSA). It's been known that medical tourism is somewhat big in Hong Kong (though mostly for other Asians, particularly mainland Chinese). In this respect, going to Iceland would've raised a few NSA eyebrows, and in light of this I think HK was a good choice (of course, I'm sure there are other, better, choices).

I still would question why he didn't then hop on a flight from Hong Kong to Iceland before he let the cat out of the bag.

Edit: Maybe he left Hong Kong after the interview but before they published it?

Check out beggi's post: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=5852564

Iceland cannot make guarantees either. Also, I suspect that booking a flight would raise a lot of suspicion. Spies spy on spies -- people like Snowden are just as likely, if not more likely, to be watched, than your typical civilian.

He has probably considered that and knows more than we do about what his strategy is. He probably hasn't shown his whole hand either. He might not even be in Hong Kong.

This. We are seeing reports that are hours old. How he released the NSA data was thought about long ago. I doubt he is in HongKong.

Totally - welcome to the farking cyberpunk future we all dreamed about in the 80s.

THis is amazing.

If he lied to The Guardian I would be very surprised. It would be unlikely to help his case.

I don't think you've been paying attention. Glenn Greenwald (who writes for the Guardian) and Laura Poitras (who's independent, but has had bylines for both the Guardian and WP) interviewed him in his hotel room in Hong Kong. He definitely was in Hong Kong for a while.

That was kind of my point. I wasn't the one who said "he might not even be in Hong Kong."

I think the poster of that statement meant that in the interview he made it sound like he was intending to stay in Hong Kong, but that may well not be his strategy.

I thought it was fairly shrewd - any kind of "extra-legal" action against him in Hong Kong would almost certainly piss China off, and they're really the only tiger that the US isn't in a hurry to get into a wrestling match with.

A hit on Snowden in Hong Kong would be an immense international diplomatic incident. A hit on him in Iceland would be a flash in the pan (what's Iceland going to do about it?). My hunch is that he's banking on diplomatic tensions between China and the US to shield him.

Hong Kong puts him under China's diplomatic shield without necessarily directly exposing him to the PRC's equivalent of the NSA, who I'm sure are eager to get their hands on him.

Other than one minority party MP trying to win votes, what makes you think Iceland would be better? Iceland has an extradition treaty with the US, is a NATO member and the current conservative government doesn't show any desire to piss off the Americans.

If you didn't have any direct relationship and assurances from a government that you'd be protected from extradition, which one would you go to?

Isn't the obvious answer that China would be less willing to extradite people to the US? Not as unwilling as, say, Iran, but still.

Reply on news.ycombinator.com